I was using my example as if it were the worlds.

at this years worlds in open there were 42 players over 1000.



Regardless of what your field actually consists of, the chances for that great a discrepancy between rounds is low.

Do you think that in a field of 42 1000+ rated players (and what, 169 total players?), it is likely that on a 49 SSA course, the "hot" round would be a 49?

Very unlikely.

However, as shown in my example earlier, Chuck and the computer will show you that the numbers are right and the fact was the course could be harder / easier and they will never know.

Ratings are stupid. That is the bottom line.

Most people who love the ratings have no clue why they were created and further more, don't know what the standard for 1000 was orginally set at.

What was the standard for 1000 rating?

1000 was meant to be last cash at worlds.

This year, it was 982 (technically a lot worse but last cash was George Smith and he missed a lot of holes, so I did right above him) and that spot was 56th.

Just Bunnell finished 36th and averaged under 1000. Top 35 and up averaged 1000 or better.

Clearly no where close to what it is suppose to be.

06 was 985 for last cash (54 spots paid) and 1000 or better was top 30 and up.

Shane Seal finished 31st and averaged 998

1000 was based on last cash at cincinatti worlds whatever year that was... to apply it to any other worlds is not appropriate.

But don't you think its interesting to cash at the words now is 985 and then was 1000?

And I guess my point in that was what if the ratings were based off the last two years worlds.

SSA's would jump a stroke and a half!

it could be for lots of reasons. it might not apply to Worlds and its large fields, but one of the arguments for single-division events (open only) is that larger fields would, in most cases, push the cash line down. it could be as simple as the average rating of the field has gone down because more low rated players are attending. not saying it is, just that it could be. i kinda wish the ratings system didnt rely on a computed SSA - for the reasons MTL has already suggested. the DSA method does not have that problem.

Larger fields will have a lower cash line for a very clear reason I feel

here is my incredibally broad reasoning why

Most tournaments in open have four types of players.
1. Guys who will compete for the win and will cash 98% of the time
2. Guys who cash most of the time, but probably won't comepete for the win
3. Guys who cash here and there
4. Guys who rarely cash

Catagory 1 guys play almost all the events.
Catagory 2 guys play a lot of the events
Catagory 3 guys play some events
Catagory 4 guys don't play many events

Let's say for this example, all TD's play half of the field (to make the numbers easy).

You have 10 pros show up. 3 of which are catagory 1. This means the remaining 7 players are basically competing for the last 2 spots.Those catagory 1 guys take up 60% of the cashing spots.

You have 20 pros show up. Those 3 guys now only take 30 percent now and you have 17 guys battingling for 7 spots.

As the fields get larger, the number of catagory 2, 3, and 4 guys increases, therefore, the average rating for last cash decreases.

If you have 3 1000 rated guys and 7 890 rated guys in that person field, two of those 890 guys are gonna cash.

You're starting to sound like Sarah DeMar. :p

I'm sure she will be sorry to hear you feel that way :D

the writer (http://www.lyme.org/children/notimeforlymeversion%203.pdf)

or

the player (http://discraft.com/team_demar.html)

?

But don't you think its interesting to cash at the words now is 985 and then was 1000?

And I guess my point in that was what if the ratings were based off the last two years worlds.

SSA's would jump a stroke and a half!



they have tweaked the formulas several times since cincinatti. also worlds courses have generally tended to get longer/harder which makes it more difficult for rounds to rate out really well (or really badly)

the writer (http://www.lyme.org/children/notimeforlymeversion%203.pdf)

or

the player (http://discraft.com/team_demar.html)

?


the SuccuBUZZ (http://www.pdga.com/msgboard/showflat.php?Cat=0&Board=Women&Number=711002&page= 1&fpart=1)

also worlds courses have generally tended to get longer/harder which makes it more difficult for rounds to rate out really well (or really badly)

john, could you elaborate on that contention?

no contention, mathematical fact. the calculations do not take the probability of a given number being shot into account but instead apply a certain number of points per stroke which becomes less as the ssa gets higher. (applying linear math to a function best represented by a bell curve)

to go to extremes one stroke on a course of ssa 42 might be worth 13 points while one stroke on a course of ssa 62 might be worth 7. to reflect mathematical reality the points per stroke should increase as scores diverge from the norm. thus a round which is off the flat part of the curve is underweighted on courses of higher ssa and overweighted on courses of low ssa. this is why we have "record rounds" that must be broken up into several different ssa ranges of courses, rather than the most improbable of rounds being the best across the board of courses.

a statistician could probably provide a more cogent explanation but dem's the facts.

there- i've broken my pledge once again VR.

i understand that shorter course yield higher per shot ratings variances, but that could be as much a result of course design as it is just length.

mtl or someone else what kind of monthly action is going down tomorrow within an hour or so of burlington?

not sure - only thing I know of tomorrow is greenville ice bowl

sunday is homegrown, rocky mount monthly and high point ice bowl

I will be doing nothing all weekend b/c I'm sick from the rain and cold of last weekend.

FYI: Cash line at Cincy98 was 963 with 40% of the field paid. Each course SSA was produced based on the average score of the 100 best scores shot on the course by 100 different people (any division) meaning only the best one of any person's scores was counted on the same course. Only seven Open players averaged 1000 or over for the event (plus a few Masters) although many players had at least one 1000 rated round.

does that mean that scores were worse (or you could argue that the sport has evolved where players are better and / or disc technology is better) or the calculation changed?

i understand that shorter course yield higher per shot ratings variances, but that could be as much a result of course design as it is just length.



i didn't say shorter course- i said low ssa which could be a super short but reasonably difficult course (pohick in va) or a wide open, windless course where every hole is 280 feet- you can't account for poor course design in numbers strictly based on scoring average.

Who knows? Too many factors involved but whatever drift, if any, doesn't seem to be more than 1%. There's probably been some inflation in the ratings as we've tried to adjust formulas over the years with the biggest change going from dropping 15% to 2% of rounds per player. However, SSAs for the same course layout have been amazingly stable for 6-8 years with Knob Hill being a good example. www.pdga.com/tournament/course_ratings_by_course.php?RatingCourseID=119 (http://www.pdga.com/tournament/course_ratings_by_course.php?RatingCourseID=119)

john, good points. sa works better when most players (or at least the ones at the top) are playing a healthy mix. when that is true course design effects minimize.

While Biscoe's theory may sound good, it doesn't hold up in practice. In the range of scores where players are known to shoot, a 50 is no harder to shoot on a 50 SSA course for a 1000 rated player than a 63 is to shoot on a 63 SSA course for the same player. We compared the average round ratings of 3500 propagators with ratings over 899 in the five SSA ranges that we track for "best ever" scores. The table shows it's no harder to shoot the score a player needs to shoot to match their rating on a higher SSA course than a lower SSA course. The numbers are how many ratings points over or under the group's rating were shot on courses in that SSA range.

There's no question it's a bit harder to shoot scores that rate 1100 for a 1040 player than it is for a 940 player to shoot 1000. But KC has shown he can maintain this rating over many years regardless of the mounting number of players rivaling him and trying to "steal" his ratings points at events. And the top guys play on higher SSA courses on average than most players.
<table> <tr> <td>Rating</td><td>SSA</td><td><48</td><td>48-53.9</td><td>54-59.9</td><td>60-65.9</td><td>66> </td></tr> <tr> <td>900 - 949</td><td>Avg</td><td>-3</td><td>1</td><td>-1</td><td>1</td><td>6 </td></tr> <tr> <td>950 - 999</td><td>Avg</td><td>-2</td><td>0</td><td>-1</td><td>2</td><td>2 </td></tr> <tr> <td>1000 +</td><td>Avg</td><td>-1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>-3</td><td>-1 </td></tr> </table>

biscoe doesn't have a theory- he has mathematics.

you are disseminating by leaping to player ratings that have already been miscalculated by the fundamental flaw in the math at its MOST BASIC POINT- when you calculate the individual round rating to begin with based on a linear function, everything after that point is based on BAD MATH because the score distribution can never be represented by a linear function. to claim that a linear function is sufficient for this phenomena is to say that it is equally likely i will walk out on hawk hollow tomorrow and shoot a 60, 6, or 600000.

why do you have to say a round is the best ever for a particular type of course???... because your system does not actually represent reality, much as newtonian physics only represents reality for a finite part of the universe.

is it good enough for government work? probably. that is why i said i was done shooting holes in it but i'm sorry i can't resist, particularly when you call solid math "theory".

- The ratings are not based on linear math. It's a quadratic function. Notice the shallow curve in graph below that shows how a player's rating, score and SSA interact.
- There's no question that it's tougher to shoot a lower score by the population at large but not by players at that skill level. Yes, if you're trying to shoot better than -18, it will be tougher. But we deal with few scores in this range.
- It's likely that it's harder for an established player to improve from a 990 to 1000 rating than a 930 to 940 rating. However, not for players at that are natively at or capable of the higher skill level and just haven't gotten there yet.
http://hometown.aol.com/ck34/images/score%20graph.jpg

My guess is, I am going up 4 points.

Just a guess. An excel aided guess... :)

welcome to the next decade Matt, but still more than 7 points away from the 4 digits

Do you know who they guy in the Gold shirt is in the following video?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MrexLc7DWE

haha im actually in that video 3 times.

That's 3 times too many....

Did ECU applications decrease? :)

actually it was for new people already accepted and that were coming to ECU and that were living in the dorms.

Any guesses as to where I am the third time in the video?

Probably one of the Cool Guys in the Band

Isn't that how your room looks now?

Is that a poster.... of a LOCOMOTIVE!

bwa....... you fill in the rest.

The comforter is my favorite.......makes me want to go sailing!

Probably one of the Cool Guys in the Band



yup.

tuba player on the R of pirates.

Probably one of the Cool Guys in the Band



yup.

tuba player on the R of pirates.




Post some pics!

haha I dont have any pics of me playing online....

what would you say your stage presence rating is tiz?

thats pretty funny

what would you say your stage presence rating is tiz?



haha on that....about 890.

however when i was playing the bass line of another bites the dust on tuba in college.....it was about 1050

i concur

Not bad but I like the moving out video a lot more. :D

Reading Chuck and John's math debate excites me.

How far will my player rating fall before it starts going up again since I can control my rating decline? It's related to how many rounds I will play left handed in order to play in tournaments. At some point I will start playing right handed again and it will begin to move up.

Not bad but I like the moving out video a lot more. :D



His parents might like to see that one too, lol! :D

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fRPWYCRhm78&amp;feature=related

is that what you guys are talking about?

If so why?

I'm lost to what references you guys are making

its not your thread anymore dude. you need to get a new one of your own.

I need a thread part 2?

I voted no!

MTL needs a new head.

MTL needs a new head.



if he retires the old one will the earth have a new moon?

: ) :

MTL needs a new head.


If we kept playing telephone with this line of statements eventually things would get really messed up.

MTL needs a new head.


If we kept playing telephone with this line of statements eventually things would get really messed up.



lol

Today has been pretty weird, to say the least. So I�ve been sick for like 2 weeks and after I went to bed last night I kept coughing and coughing and could not get to sleep. So when I woke up I was pretty much dead to the world and decided to come in a few hours late and get some sleep.

So I came in at 10. at 10:30, we had a fire alarm go off. We have these goofy elevators that seem to do pretty much whatever they want and one of the motors had sparks and smoke came out and all kinds of fun stuff. We were outside for 45 min. That was interesting. The best part was this old lady who works in the building was like �the elevators passed the inspection, it was just the motor that runs them that sparked, they should be fine.�

Then I came back and went to lunch. Well I usually go to lunch with some guys at work but we all did our own thing today. I was gonna get a hair cut after work (the place is right up the street from my office) so I decided to just go real quick during lunch so I could get home on time.

Well this girl cutting my hair drove me out of my freakin mind. One of the worst things about working for a bank is everyone you meet as soon they know you work for a bank they got a million questions. Lucky for me she was interested in buying a home so she had about 2183 million questions. I mean I like my job and all but I don�t get bonuses so I really don�t care to promote our product on my lunch break.

She also talked the whole freaking time. I can�t stand it! Just cut my hair. I don�t want to talk to you about your fianc� and your accounts and your credit score and your life. Just do your job.

And the hair cut SUCKED. I can't believe she calls herself a professional.

aight post a pic of the crappy haircut

haha i dont have anyway of doing that.

i dont own a camera (sad but true)

and im fixing it as soon as i get home.

My day was interesting. A moderator threatened me.

She also talked the whole freaking time. I can�t stand it! Just cut my hair. I don�t want to talk to you about your fianc� and your accounts and your credit score and your life. Just do your job.




That might be the most hypocritical thing i have read all day.

haha I was waiting for someone to say that.

Why do you think it is alright to threaten a dues paying pdga member with blatant abuse of your moderator power?

No public response? Thanks for finally stopping sending me countless pm's I don't want from you.

finally this thread is starting to get exciting. <font color="blue">[offensive material / personal attack removed] </font> er, uh i mean moderater is sending you threatening pms?

What a day indeed. Maybe instead of making empty threats again you should listen to what PP told ya. And stop causing conflict to hear your own praise and appreciation.

How empty is a threat from a moderator that already put me on probation for no reason, and without even notifying me yet let's his "friends" attack and insult at liberty with no recourse?

how did he even become a moderator?

I hope he gets at least a year of suspension from the pdga for direct and blatant use of power authorized via the pdga. What did Mellon get a 10 year suspension for?

They are all empty. All he can do is suspend you from the DB who really fn cares. You can still play tournies. NO POWER THERE POLISHPETERPULLER

POLISHPROBATIONPERIOD

Why would I want to play tournies with someone who goes around threatening people that play pdga events and use its member privileges?

PLAYPROPansies
or the other word

I like this more then BigWideDOME

Awe come on I've heard this one already:

A [censored] and an idiot walk into a thread....

: ) :

Awwwww, BS and P3PP, come on over to the Homegrown side. I've been smiling since Sunday. :D

lmao! :D
I heard the Disco is going Sunday morning.

Sunday afternoon at 2p.m. for First Sunday Singles. Even QC boyz will be out and home in time for the ball game. You'll like. :cool:

I plan on being there. Might come a little early and play a round or hit Hickraw Dubs then cruise to the DISCO. Also GLO friday night. What a weekend

Haven't players been suspended from pdga play for verbal threats towards TD's in the past. Some champion guy comes to mind from years past. What about if a TD threatens a player in writing? Should they not be able to TD or play pdga events? What do people think?

I think today has lots of potential for being a crazy day!

What about if a TD threatens a player in writing? Should they not be able to TD or play pdga events? What do people think?


Better yet Do people REALly care? Most people already have an opinion of this person and all these threads really aren't going to change it or him. Remember you can't save them all especially if they don't see a need to change. As Riverdawg said welcome to the HGT.

Understood. :D

[quote As Riverdawg said welcome to the HGT.

[/QUOTE]

Giddy up... :cool:

Cnograts on the big Win at No Mans

Yay Riverdog nice W man!!

Thanks guys. Kind of a blind hog thang really and I'm as blind and hoggish as anybody. :cool:

Good shooting Jamie!!!

Td create revenue....Enough said...Noone ever suspends a cash cow. No pun intended.

Man I don't know what it is, im just in a slump.

I shot really well in Myrtle Beach but since then, have not played well at all. I played a monthly this morning on a super pitch and putt, but it is wooded and you have to hit lines. I shot a 41 after missing 3 out of the first 4 holes.

I was tied for the lead (yeah, 41 tied for the lead is further proof how short this course is) and totally blew up at a another course during the second round.

Got a big (well B tier) tournament this coming up weekend. The good news is I traditionally play pretty well at this course and this tournament. I need this slump to end asap!

At least the Canes have won two straight :D

Screw the Canes.

lol

second. They would be in third place in most other divisions.

very good point.

The southeast is a very very bad division.

Yet two of the three best players in hockey (Kovalchuk and Ovechkin) are in the division, the Canes are probably the deepest team in the league at forward, Tampa has one the best lines in hockey and Florida has some real talent.

It's kinda strange with those things to come from the worst division in hockey.

Man I don't know what it is, im just in a slump.





<font color="blue">[personal attack removed] </font>

i dont think there is any dispute he is a Member.

Man I don't know what it is, im just in a slump.





<font color="blue">[personal attack removed] </font>



<font color="blue">[personal attack removed] </font>

subjective censorship strikes again!!!!

At least the Canes have won two straight :D



.... how'd that 4-1 feel Saturday Nite MTizzle?!? 4 goal 3rd for the Pens catapulting them into a stellar victory over MTL's oh-so-loved Canes. In the words of Nelson, "HA HA" :D

man oh man that sucked.

i thought we had ya'll.

We should have done an avatar challenge. :D

ya snooze ya lose.

kind of like we did in the third period

I didn't suck this weekend.

But the weekend did start off strange. I was running a fever Thursday night and had "stomach issues" (to put nicely). I went to the doctor Friday and asked if it would be ok to play and he said that as long as I felt like it, it was ok.

Well I woke up Saturday and felt fine so I went and played.

First round was from the white tees (all par 3's, however, I lay up on 2 of the holes). I started slow witha 4 on one of the holes I layed up on and then a horrible drive on the next hole. However, I banged about a 30 footer for the birdie through some trees.

I really didn't play great that round (meaning I didn't really do anything special other than a few good putts), just got a lot of the easier holes and shot a 48 which was just barely over 1000 and put me tied for fifth.

Round 2 was on the blue tees, a legit par 58. I started par par par (334) and then got a bogey on 5 after a terrible upshot and then a par 4 on 6.

Hole 7 - 15 is where you have to score on the blue tees and hole 7 I totally screwed up my drive and approach. I ended up hitting a 45 foot hyzer putt for the save and it got me going. I birdied 8, 11, 12, 14, 15 and 17 (its a par 4) after that. Thanks to that finish I shot a 55 (-3 and over 1000) and moved up into 2nd place thanks to the lead card struggling.

Sunday morning was back on the whites and I started off hot. Hole 1 is a hole you feel you should never miss, but its not that easy. Hole 2 is probably the easiest hole on the course. Hole 3 is a big bonus duece. I lay up on 4. Hole 5 is simple as well. I started off 22232, which the way I play the holes, was perfect.

I really got ahead of myself and only shot a 48 again (but it was windier, so this was rated 1012). I was still 5 off the lead but had increased my lead on 3rd to 2 and on 5th to 5.

The last round was in some of the craziest wind I've ever played in. I started off poorly with 2 bogeys in the first four holes. When we got to hole 8 (hole 8 - 11 are on the water on this course) the winds were in the 50 MPH range and I was thrilled to come out of those 4 holes at even par. At one point I made about a 45 putt with a firebird when I was just trying to lay up. The disc literally was picked up by the wind and it got blown in. It was quite a moment.

I birdied 13, 14, and 16 (with a 3) to go up 2 on Mike Hofmann for 2nd. I threw my 2nd shot (par 4) on 17 in the water, but got up and down for a 5 from the drop zone. Mike hit a huge putt for a birdie 3 to tie it up.

On 18 Mike missed the gap and I stepped up with all the pressure on me and threw it right down the gut. Mike would take a 5 and I took home 2nd place. I shot a 59 that round which was rated 997. Averaged over 1000 for the weekend and was one shot away that last round from getting 4 1000 rated rounds. However, Schweb got me by 11. He played really good this weekend.

It was quite a finish to a tournament where I felt I wouldn't even be able to play and in a time where my game was struggling.

I honestly feel this was the best I have ever putted in a PDGA tournament from start to finish. I made lots of good 20 - 30 footers in the wind, banged a few jump putts and also hit some tough putts from the woods from funky angles. I can only count about 5 putts that I would like to have back - and I usually say that per round, and that was for the whole weekend.

&lt;-- You are ignoring this user. You finally wised up. --&gt;

if you are ignoring me then how can I send you a private message?

_MTL_Shield 2008 has been upgraded. Version 4.2.0

_MTL_Shield now works on Vista. If you shoot the same score as _MTL_, you may need to install the "TD" Driver.

The _MTL_ virus is wily. We have devoted endless hours but the virus continues to evolve.

_MTL_ Shield has discovered that the _MTL_ virus has not yet reached all corners of the internets. There are still some rogue sites devoted to rhubarb, rhythm gymnastics, and mongolian yurts that have not yet encountered the _MTL_ virus. the key word there is YET. Never let down your guard. Download the _MTL_ patch now.

:)

nice shootin MTL

Nice job, Rob! :D Good to see your year start off proper. Keep up the good puttin', buddy.

thanks Jen and Bert!