At Day 1 of Animalfest at Warwick today, I shot a 47 on silver-silver and a 66 on blue-blue. It seems like these should be about 980ish or so. However, since I'm only 936 and a 900 player (vastly underrated of course) shot 49/65 and a 921 shot 49/68, how much lower will the SSA probably be than what is given on the course stats page? There were only 56 players and I'm not sure how many members.

Everyone's score has an equal impact on the SSA. You can't just look at certain key scores and estimate what will happen. The only way to do it is to have Dan enter the scores in the online calculator.

The math is not that hard.

Those three scores make 48.3 rate 919. You are saying a 48.3 should rate 967 or so. Those three scores represent slightly less than 6% of the total rounds, assuming all 56 are gators, which most likely is not true. If 6% of the total rounds are skewed by 48 ratings points, then the total sample will be skewed almost 3 rating points, 2.88 to be more accurate.

If all of the other players shoot true to their rating, instead of getting a 980 you get a 977.