I've been playing with my formulas again, this time to calculate how busy each course in the United States is. Three things can make a course busy � a lot of population nearby, not many other courses nearby, and more holes. The formulas are the same as those used to produce the city graphs in the Highest Concentration of Courses thread. The data is from the PDGA Course Directory and the U.S. Census.

Here are the top ten.

Prospect Park DGC, Brooklyn, New York, 22,627
Sedgley Woods (East Fairmount Park), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 8,441
La Mirada Regional Park, La Mirada, California, 7,245
Chavez Ridge DGC at Elysian, Los Angeles, California, 7,206
Whittier Narrows Park, South El Monte, California, 6,147
Morley Field, San Diego, California, 5,114
Riverside Golf Club, Riverside, California, 4,804
Summit Park, Summit, Illinois, 4,792
El Dorado Park, Long Beach, California, 4,762
Rutgers, Douglass College, New Brunswick, New Jersey, 4,508

The number can be thought of as number of visitors that would go to that course, out of 1,000,000 total disc golfers. The average for all U.S. disc golf courses is 437.

So, Prospect Park is being asked to serve over 2.2% of all U.S. disc golfers. It has the double burden of having a lot of population around it (New York, duh!) and hardly any other courses around.

Here are the bottom ten:

Camp on the Boulder, Mcleod, Montana, 12
SDGC Practice Course, Menomonie, Wisconsin, 10
Pilot Mound, Pilot Mound, Iowa, 8
Lighthouse Pointe, Pierre, South Dakota, 7
Jackrabbit DGC, Tribune, Kansas, 7
North Greenville University DGC, Tigerville, South Carolina, 6
Crystal Mountain, Thompsonville, Michigan, 5
King Salmon Park, King Salmon, Alaska, 5
Dysart City Park, Dysart, Iowa, 3

I also computed the "market share" of the courses. This shows how lonely each course is, if you will.

Prospect Park DGC, Brooklyn, New York, 64.0%
Morley Field, San Diego, California, 42.1%
Sedgley Woods (East Fairmount Park), Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 34.9%
Amelia Earhart Park, Hialeah, Florida, 34.9%
Golden Gate Park DGC, San Francisco, California, 33.5%
Aquatic Park, Berkeley, California, 32.9%
Lafreniere Park, Metairie, Louisiana, 31.4%
Riverside Golf Club, Riverside, California, 30.7%
Chavez Ridge DGC at Elysian, Los Angeles, California, 30.7%
Vista Del Camino Park, Phoenix (Scottsdale), Arizona, 28.9%

And here are the ten that are the most out-competed:

Freedom Park, Medford, New Jersey, 0.1%
Rexford Elementary School, Clintonville, Wisconsin, 0.1%
Sunset Park, Sturgeon Bay, Wisconsin, 0.1%
Lighthouse Pointe, Pierre, South Dakota, 0.1%
Jackrabbit DGC, Tribune, Kansas, 0.1%
SDGC Practice Course, Menomonie, Wisconsin, 0.1%
Pilot Mound, Pilot Mound, Iowa, 0.1%
Crystal Mountain, Thompsonville, Michigan, 0.1%
North Greenville University DGC, Tigerville, South Carolina, 0.1%
Dysart City Park, Dysart, Iowa, 0.0%

The complete list is here:
Fun with Numbers (http://stevewestdiscgolf.com/numbers.aspx)

Since I only computed values for existing courses, it is possible there are places where there aren't any courses at all, where a new course would be even busier than any of these.

Unless someone can come up with data to verify or dispute these numbers, it's all just theory. Still, let me know if you find any practical uses.

nice spreadsheet, but ehe numbers are off. I looked at Manitoba canada...2 courses...so if one over one million people live there, that over half of them play the course? The discrepency is really making the number bias towards population, and not disc golf population. If you could get rough estimates of disc golf population...then you could get better numbers for people per course and such. Also...Mexico has one golf course...and only 9 holes...there is noooo way there is 84000 sq mi. per hole. So..you need to get better data about the actual area of the courses. Or you can do the rough estimate of an acre per hole. Again..this messes with the area per course as well. All of the main stats you were trying to show are skewed. The 4 stats you need to change are: area per hole, area per course, people per hole, and people per course. I hope others feel this way too, because without accurate numbers there isn't accurate facts to produce.

nice spreadsheet, but ehe numbers are off. I looked at Manitoba canada...2 courses...so if one over one million people live there, that over half of them play the course? The discrepency is really making the number bias towards population, and not disc golf population. If you could get rough estimates of disc golf population...then you could get better numbers for people per course and such. Also...Mexico has one golf course...and only 9 holes...there is noooo way there is 84000 sq mi. per hole. So..you need to get better data about the actual area of the courses. Or you can do the rough estimate of an acre per hole. Again..this messes with the area per course as well. All of the main stats you were trying to show are skewed. The 4 stats you need to change are: area per hole, area per course, people per hole, and people per course. I hope others feel this way too, because without accurate numbers there isn't accurate facts to produce.



Yes, if everyone in Manitoba wanted to play at the same time, there would be half a million people at each course.

As for Mexico, let's see, a hole that takes up 84,000 square miles would be at least 1,726,747 feet long, with a SSA of 6,060.47. What's the problem again?

Actually, the numbers were correct (as far as I know). However, there are two problems which can be fixed.

First, the spreadsheet that calculates the potential popularity of courses is the other one on the page, called Visitors.

Second, for the spreadsheet you were looking at, the choice of statistics was not the clearest. I've changed them to Holes per 1,000 square miles, Courses per 1,000 square miles, Holes per million people, and Courses per million people. Make sense?

Also, as you point out, both spreadsheets do suffer from a lack of data about the percent of the population that actually plays disc golf (and how often) by state and country. If you'll send those to me, I'll incorporate them.

How do think your calculations match up with the following data collected by the Northern Colorado Disc Golf Club in Ft. Collins, CO?

Here are some recent stats that I got from Rich Knowles who works tirelessly on behalf of disc golf in the Fort.

Yesterday 76 people played through hole 3 in 1 hour between 3:30 and 4:30

At one point there were 14 people waiting in line to tee off at hole 3

There were lines at all the other tees also.

The day before, 66 people went through that tee in 1 hour with similar lines of people waiting to tee off.

In the summer, after CSU has let out, we estimate user-ship up to 37,000 rounds through June, July, and August alone based on counts we've taken over several days.

That's just a quick sample of how over-crowded Edora is... pretty ridiculous!


This was posted on the Mile High Disc Golf Club website Thursday March 12th, 2008.

nanook

Ooooh, actual data!

Let's see. 37,000 over 92 days is 402 per day, or 2,815 per week. If I scale up my model to match that, it would imply that an average of 3,383,090 people play disc golf in the U.S. each week during the summer. If that sound too high, it means my model underestimates the number of people that play at Edora, relative to all other courses. (Or, the 37,000 figure is too high.) However, without data about the actual total number of U.S. players, there is no reason to refine my model. Yet.

The only other course I have data on is Alimagnet in MN, with an average of 561 per week in the "summer". (Yes, "summer" in MN is always in quotes. That includes May, which I would think would have lower numbers because it can still freeze up here that month. But I digress.) Another count was 803 in a week.

So, Edora apparently gets 5.0 (2815/561), or 3.5 (2815/803) times as many players as Alimagnet. Take your pick.

According to my model Edora would get 3.5 times as many players as Alimagnet. With the size of the possible errors in counting players, that is close enough that there would be no reason to refine my model. Yet.

To quote Johnny-Five: "Need Input!"

I don't have any data for you, nor do I want to get any...I was simply saying that if you're going to do it, do it right. This information output is the kind of crap we get from the media too...slanted facts. Your numbers are generalized in excess in some states or provinces. But whatever, I was just trying to give input to make it better.

bitter....

Kentwood Park is less than 1 mile from NC State University.

Conservative estimates indicate that more than 100,000 rounds are played on that course each year.

About 10 years ago I spent a lot of time there counting players to see about how many rounds were being played there. 6 months worth of lunches and spot checks before work and after work yielded the conservative estimate listed above.

Keep in mind that this was 10 years ago and in our area disc golf has only gained in popularity.

On any given day (as long as it wasn't raining) there would be as many as 10 to 15 people waiting to throw on every tee pad. Even on rainy days there would be at least 20 players on the course during the day.

That does not include all of the glow golf rounds that were being played there.

Thanks, Captain.

When can we expect to receive that glow-round data? :D

I don't have any data for you, nor do I want to get any...I was simply saying that if you're going to do it, do it right. This information output is the kind of crap we get from the media too...slanted facts. Your numbers are generalized in excess in some states or provinces. But whatever, I was just trying to give input to make it better.



Your input did make it better. Thanks

Kentwood Park is less than 1 mile from NC State University.

Conservative estimates indicate that more than 100,000 rounds are played on that course each year.

About 10 years ago I spent a lot of time there counting players to see about how many rounds were being played there. 6 months worth of lunches and spot checks before work and after work yielded the conservative estimate listed above.

Keep in mind that this was 10 years ago and in our area disc golf has only gained in popularity.

On any given day (as long as it wasn't raining) there would be as many as 10 to 15 people waiting to throw on every tee pad. Even on rainy days there would be at least 20 players on the course during the day.

That does not include all of the glow golf rounds that were being played there.



According to my model Kentwood should be 19.7% busier than Edora. Or, 175,289 players per year (44,182 during June, July, and August, for comparison to Edora's estimate of 37,000). If your 100,000 was accurate 10 years ago, a figure of 175,289 today is only 5.8% growth per year.

Does anyone have counts on UN-popular courses?

bunch of geeks...especially Captain Crunch! :D;)

Does anyone have counts on UN-popular courses?



Uh, Steve? I think the count would be zero... ;)