Ask Chuck Kennedy

[cgkdisc]

I'm usually the last to find out in the processing sequence. All reports go to PDGA HQ, so contacting the tourmgr@pdga.com is the place to check on report status. All four Bonanza reports online are shown as Unofficial. So unless the reports have gotten to the PDGA office by today, they won't make this ratings update.

[gallerypass]

I'd like to propose that we day off this Saturday day 234 . with 131 days to go to 2010..our daily, weekly, monthly, yearly messages and there are so many important messages... and with so many members nowadays and more coming soon!

Here's a notion... no e-mail /internet messages and perhaps make an appointment or meet a new DG'er and play some discgolf and somewhere before, during and /or after the round(s) and see if Tim† , is also communicating with the 'frisbetarians' and others of that persuasion and just actually which DISC landed and what roof will be visited next.

+ one more as I wil not be using the computer on Saturday...suggestion... Round off all the DISCussions and take Friday evening off, too and write a letter and the next day, early, visit the post office on the way to the course (and don't forget to put your return address on the back of the envelope) and let us know there's a thread for '22 august 2009' or 'the 4th Saturday in August' or even a 'family day/weekend'

I hope the kids at Maple School's and its 'Edraa University' Flying Disc Team in Fontana recall Tim† and John Giza's generosity and sharing the many flying disc(s) with us,.. I can still recall.

mvg
Mike
#3129

[mitchjustice]

Yo Chuck...When I try and access any page that is linked to my website I see this....


Fatal error: Call to a member function on a non-object in /home/content/t/e/a/teamjustice1/html/zencart/includes/classes/db/mysql/query_factory.php on line 105


any ideas

[cgkdisc]

I'm not a web programmer so not sure how to help.

[Dana]

Chuck-

Heard you caught a round at Highland Park in Joliet, IL the other day. What did you think of the course? Also, any chance the ratings might be out a few days early?

Thanks and good luck this weekend in IN!

[cgkdisc]

The earliest they might be posted is Monday the day before the planned update. There's a decent chance that might happen this time.

Highland was fun playing it with Super Class choosing the best SC tee on each hole. It's in pretty good shape for a new course still being tweaked. I have just a few issues with some things but otherwise very good.

[cholly]

any word on the update?

how was the supa-class?

[cgkdisc]

Early tomorrow.

[Dana]

found it

[the_kid]

Will the 2008 WC's be dropped out if an event from 8/15-8/16 09' is added in this update? Worlds ended on 8/16 08' and I just wanted to know if any or all of the rounds will be dropped.

Have 2 events that didn't get the stuff turned in so without that event dropping I don't see too much happening.

[JohnLambert]

Originally Posted by cgkdisc

Early tomorrow.

ugh I hate when things are "on time"

[cgkdisc]

Will the 2008 WC's be dropped out if an event from 8/15-8/16 09' is added in this update? Worlds ended on 8/16 08' and I just wanted to know if any or all of the rounds will be dropped.

Only if that event snuck into this update after Aug 16 like the Vibram Open did.

[cholly]

do you think that the USDGC will "sneak" in before the OCT 20 update?

on a side note, i really feel like the ratings system is a great way of judging a players current level. me and a few locals play games sometimes where strokes are given using out ratings, based on 10 points a stroke, and it comes down to the last hole more times than not.

one of the only "flaws" i see in the current system is...

What if several players have the round of their lives at the same time. Wouldn't this crush everybody else's ratings a bit for that round. An extreme example of this would be: what if everyone in the tournament played very very well. Would nobody get the extra ratings reward? I realize this has probably never happened. Is this where a course's SSA would come into play?

Just some curious ramblings, i love statistics so thanks chuck, you're the man.

[pdorries]

thanks for the update chuck, keep up the good work!

[cgkdisc]

The USDGC will make it into the next update in October.

The Ratings System is based on the science of statistics where more numbers produce more reliable values. The most likely time an SSA value could get skewed up or down from the "real" value is when we have as few as five propagators that all play worse or better than their "normal" performances in that round. Unless you have previous SSA data on that exact course layout under similar weather, you wouldn't even know whether it had happened because there would be no reference to compare against.

Mathematically, the typical 900 rated player will shoot more than 6 throws better or worse than their rating about 1 in 40 rounds. For five propagators to do this in the same round, the probability would be around once in 100 million rounds, similar to winning the lottery. Even if that happened, a 6 throw error in SSA would only amount to a little over 10% SSA error. The average round probably has around 30 props. So you can see the odds for even a 3 throw error is quite small, with at least a 6 shot error being something like once in 40 multiplied by itself 30 times rounds.

[bruce_brakel]

Originally Posted by cholly

do you think that the USDGC will "sneak" in before the OCT 20 update?

on a side note, i really feel like the ratings system is a great way of judging a players current level. me and a few locals play games sometimes where strokes are given using out ratings, based on 10 points a stroke, and it comes down to the last hole more times than not.

one of the only "flaws" i see in the current system is...

What if several players have the round of their lives at the same time. Wouldn't this crush everybody else's ratings a bit for that round. An extreme example of this would be: what if everyone in the tournament played very very well. Would nobody get the extra ratings reward? I realize this has probably never happened. Is this where a course's SSA would come into play?

Just some curious ramblings, i love statistics so thanks chuck, you're the man.

Usually when several players have the round of their lives, several other players have the round they wish they could forget, so it all averages out.

But if for some reason everyone were to play 40 points over their rating relative to normal SSAs for the course, everyone would get credit for having merely played to their ratings. The same is true when everyone plays below their rating. Since these anomolies are statistically equal, they average out too.

So the ratings system assumes that with a large enough field good days and bad days will average out. Usually they do.

[boobs]

was there a particular reason why the Daytona Open from early July wasn't included in this update?
Thanks.

[cholly]

awesome answers. thats why i love stats.
thanks

[DSproAVIAR]

Chuck, how angry do you think that Doss will be when he finds out he is not the current highest rated player in the world?

http://www.pdga.com/player-stats?PDGANum=40214

[JohnLambert]

Chuck you might wanna check out this tournament:

http://www.pdga.com/tournament-resul...1#Intermediate

something seems fishy. An intermediate guy apparently shot a 1040 round while the open players barely scraped 900 rated rounds. Fortunately, for the intermiediate guy, he's now the highest rated AM player ever.

[cgkdisc]

was there a particular reason why the Daytona Open from early July wasn't included in this update? Thanks.

I can't answer questions on events that weren't included, only those included. The PDGA office can answer your question: tourmgr@pdga.com

[cgkdisc]

Chuck, how angry do you think that Doss will be when he finds out he is not the current highest rated player in the world?
http://www.pdga.com/player-stats?PDGANum=40214

That's why we have PDGA World Rankings where players need at least 12 rated rounds in the last 12 months to get in. Sometimes it will happen like this for regular ratings where a person has a single hot round. We post what ratings players have even if it's just one round (member benefit). If I were him, I'd take a screen snapshot to save it for posterity.

[healage]

http://www.pdga.com/tournament-resul...ngs=1#Advanced

Hey Chuck -- It appears that the Am2 and Am3 players were reported as playing the same layout as the advanced divisions (Short tees to long baskets) based on the ratings... they actually played a shoter layout (Short tees to Short baskets)

Thanks!

[cgkdisc]

Chuck you might wanna check out this tournament:
http://www.pdga.com/tournament-resul...1#Intermediate

Already forwarded to Gentry and Roger for corrections.

[boobs]

thanks for the e-mail address.

Originally Posted by cgkdisc

I can't answer questions on events that weren't included, only those included. The PDGA office can answer your question: tourmgr@pdga.com

[cgkdisc]

It appears this Intermediate player legitimately shot the 44 rated at 1041 which slightly helped depress the pro ratings for that round. I think we all hope to have that awesome round that's close to perfect.

[JohnLambert]

OK, it's slightly believable that this guy signed up for his first tournament ever and shot a 1041 rated round, it's less believable that he shot 18 strokes less than the highest rated player in the tournament using the same layout with 27 holes. This really happened?

I don't think I'd believe it if you showed me a video.

[krupicka]

How does a non-gator affect the ratings?

[kkrasinski]

Why would he depress the pro ratings if he is not a propagator?

[cgkdisc]

Actually he was not a propagator. But some of the other am props shot well in comparison to the pros and that affected the pro ratings. Non-gators have no impact on the ratings.