California's Dominance: 2011 Worlds

[pterodactyl]

Will this ever happen again?

[cgkdisc]

Hopefully not.

[pterodactyl]

With the tourney moving to North Carolina next year, don't you think the locals will be looking to duplicate the success that NorCal/SoCal had this year? Course knowledge played a huge part in California's success this year. I have never played any of the Tarheel courses, but I would still expect the usual suspects at or near the top when the dust settles.

[cgkdisc]

Several items stacked in favor of the Cali folks due to 2011 Worlds format that won't occur in 2012 and hasn't occurred in the recent Worlds prior to 2011.

[davei]

Originally Posted by cgkdisc

Several items stacked in favor of the Cali folks due to 2011 Worlds format that won't occur in 2012 and hasn't occurred in the recent Worlds prior to 2011.

Two main factors are the relatively high number of pros in Cali and course familiarity.

[pterodactyl]

Personally, I had played DeLa the most of the 4 courses (roughly 30 times), but had only played Pinto Lake 3 times, Ryan Ranch 1 time and The Oaks once also. There's no doubt that it helped local guys like J Michael Barry and Jon Baldwin (who hadn't won a tourney other than the Faultline since 2009).
There's alway good home cookin' for the locals at the worlds.

So, who are the North Carolina favorites with the home-course advantage for next year?

Scwebby? Stan McDaniel? Brian Mc?

[Dana]

MJ(!!!), Jerm, Wysocki

[denny1210]

Originally Posted by Dana

MJ(!!!), Jerm, Wysocki

plus Cam Todd and Barry Schultz.

My pick for open, though, is some guy from Florida to pick up lucky #13.

[wyattcoggin]

Originally Posted by Dana

MJ(!!!), Jerm, Wysocki

David Wiggins Jr. 1 hour away and knows the courses.

[20460chase]

Originally Posted by pterodactyl

So, who are the North Carolina favorites with the home-course advantage for next year?

Scwebby? Stan McDaniel? Brian Mc?

Maybe in Masters.....

[pterodactyl]

Originally Posted by 20460chase

Maybe in Masters.....

Scwebby: Open
Brian Mc: Masters
Stan Mc: Grandmasters

[omegaputt]

Please explain more chuck

[cgkdisc]

Just my observation if you look closely.

[Martin_Bohn]

Poison oak!!!

[cgkdisc]

Cam is currently designing one of the courses Open may play.

[John Hernlund]

California disc golf is a bit different, and takes some getting used to. I came across so many competitors during Worlds who were playing one or more courses for the very first time...they never had a chance. On the other hand, size matters: California is a huge state with lots of outdoor sports enthusiasts, and there is a large pool of disc golfers from which those occasional explosions of talent occur. How many 1000+ rated players are in California? Probably a lot more than any other state.

Plus, we had a very poor showing of competitors traveling from east of the Rocky Mountains. At one point I checked and there were less than 20 of them in the entire roster! If other states want to win more Worlds titles, then they have to get off their butts and play Worlds.

Anyways, California disc golf holds more surprises for the world, and an army of up and coming players you've probably never heard of, so it isn't outside the realm of possibility that Californians would again win the majority of divisions in Worlds, maybe even in 2012.

Santa Cruuuuuuz!

[cgkdisc]

pterodactyl - Who knows how many rating points have been shaved off of my and other CA golfers' ratings due to the 2-m rule that is in place for every tourney I play out here on the left coast.

Doesn't matter. It just raises the SSA but doesn't lower ratings. Now, if CA and NC players are in the same event and the CA players take 2m penalties and NC players don't...

[pterodactyl]

if I am in a tourney and I am the only player to get stuck up 2m+ and it happens 3 times during a round...that doesn't affect my rating?

[John Hernlund]

All these statistics don't really matter in the long term, since in each instance it is only one player who will win in each division. Statistics don't work well with small numbers. For example, do the reverse logic, and try to construe Climo's career as a characteristic measure of the typical Florida disc golfer...it's totally skewed.

Originally Posted by pterodactyl

if I am in a tourney and I am the only player to get stuck up 2m+ and it happens 3 times during a round...that doesn't affect my rating?

No, it only changes the SSA.

But, the California disc golfer doesn't think of a tree as a disc catching device, like a NC disc golfer does...but guys like Nate Doss spend a lot of time playing east coast rules and can easily adjust, and still dominate.

[cgkdisc]

It's no different from OB hazards in NC that you go into 3 times over a round. Both hurt your personal rating the same but it affects everyone to some percentage of shots and it raises the SSA for that course compared to not having any OB or 2m rule such that the net effect of the hazards doesn't change the overall average ratings produced for players that round.

[pterodactyl]

But I'm not going to throw OB next year in NC!

[cgkdisc]

Not too much OB on the courses you'll likely be playing and only really affects lefties...

[cgkdisc]

Eric McCabe has been the lowest World Ranked player (31st just before Worlds) to win Worlds. However, he had a 1025 rating and was around 10th rated at the Worlds he won. Ratings more than rankings would probably be a better indicator for winning Worlds potential.

[davei]

Originally Posted by cgkdisc

Eric McCabe has been the lowest World Ranked player (31st just before Worlds) to win Worlds. However, he had a 1025 rating and was around 10th rated at the Worlds he won. Ratings more than rankings would probably be a better indicator for winning Worlds potential.

Ratings don't mean anything unless you get it playing against good competition. I could name you lots of players with ratings higher than their ability to compete in a real open setting. All you have to do is be very good at one or two local courses. No offense to Eric, but that was a career performance. He is a very good player and he happened to be putting lights out at that tournament. Even so, by your logic, his rating would not have predicted a win for him.

[cgkdisc]

davei - Ratings don't mean anything unless you get it playing against good competition

C'mon Dave, for 12 years now, it's been shown that it doesn't matter who is playing in the event. The course ratings (SSA) are independent of who's playing and what rating a score gets.

Regardless, my point is that ratings of the top players (based on at least 25 rounds) are still better than rankings if you're placing odds on a particular player winning. For example, Jussi will drop out of the World Rankings in early 2012 without any stats in majors but still have around a 1023 rating.