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Old Aug 31 2011, 02:04 PM   #2783
ERicJ
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Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Mo.City, TX
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Default 2011 AM Worlds Juniors R4 vs. R6 ratings

Quote:
Originally Posted by cgkdisc View Post
A 2-shot difference in SSA is statistically normal by the same pool of players playing the same layout under the same conditions. [...] If the amount of wind increases the SSA less than 2 shots, it can be indistinguishable from normal variance so those round ratings are not kept separate.

In other words, the ratings process is automated regardless of any weather observations by the TD. The SSAs are actually calculated separately by round on each layout. If the SSA difference is big enough on the same layout, the numbers will be kept separate. If not, they are combined. We cannot rely on anecdotal weather observations of the TD to determine the proper way to do the calculations because even perfect observations would not necessarily indicate what to do. The actual calculations are the bottom line to prove whether the weather was a significant factor between rounds.
2011 AM Worlds: http://www.pdga.com/tournament_results/16465/Open

Junior pool played Churchville twice. First time in Round 4 in perfect conditions. Second time in Round 6 in wind and rain, the second half of the round in pouring rain. Anecdotally, there's no way those rounds should have been combined for ratings (and yet that is what's on the PDGA webpage right now).

Can you divulge what the SSAs were for Round 4 and Round 6 separately?

A 52 in Round 6 was far more impressive than a 52 in Round 4, yet both are rated 1004.
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