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cgkdisc · Sep 01 2009, 10:14 AM

The USDGC will make it into the next update in October.

The Ratings System is based on the science of statistics where more numbers produce more reliable values. The most likely time an SSA value could get skewed up or down from the "real" value is when we have as few as five propagators that all play worse or better than their "normal" performances in that round. Unless you have previous SSA data on that exact course layout under similar weather, you wouldn't even know whether it had happened because there would be no reference to compare against.

Mathematically, the typical 900 rated player will shoot more than 6 throws better or worse than their rating about 1 in 40 rounds. For five propagators to do this in the same round, the probability would be around once in 100 million rounds, similar to winning the lottery. Even if that happened, a 6 throw error in SSA would only amount to a little over 10% SSA error. The average round probably has around 30 props. So you can see the odds for even a 3 throw error is quite small, with at least a 6 shot error being something like once in 40 multiplied by itself 30 times rounds.

Sep 01 2009, 10:14 AM	#1785
cgkdisc PDGA Member Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Twin Cities, Minnesota Posts: 6,220	The USDGC will make it into the next update in October. The Ratings System is based on the science of statistics where more numbers produce more reliable values. The most likely time an SSA value could get skewed up or down from the "real" value is when we have as few as five propagators that all play worse or better than their "normal" performances in that round. Unless you have previous SSA data on that exact course layout under similar weather, you wouldn't even know whether it had happened because there would be no reference to compare against. Mathematically, the typical 900 rated player will shoot more than 6 throws better or worse than their rating about 1 in 40 rounds. For five propagators to do this in the same round, the probability would be around once in 100 million rounds, similar to winning the lottery. Even if that happened, a 6 throw error in SSA would only amount to a little over 10% SSA error. The average round probably has around 30 props. So you can see the odds for even a 3 throw error is quite small, with at least a 6 shot error being something like once in 40 multiplied by itself 30 times rounds. __________________ Rater of the tossed arc.